CREST Stochastic Demand Model - Net Zero Go
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CREST Stochastic Demand Model

The model is an integrated thermal-electrical demand model based on a bottom-up activity-based structure, using stochastic programming techniques to represent dwelling diversity, producing calibrated and validated output at high-resolution, based on reduced-order thermal-electrical networks to represent thermal dynamics, and developed as free open-source software to promote transparency and further research.

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A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic thermal and electricity demand. The model produces one-minute resolution demand data, disaggregated by end-use, using a bottom-up modelling approach based on patterns of active occupancy and daily activity profiles derived from time-use survey data. The model includes a representation of electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics), resident occupancy, solar thermal collector, and thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls, and gas boilers. The model has been validated and can be used to simulate dwellings' demand of aggregations such that dwelling diversity is duly represented and end-use demand appropriately correlated.

The bottom-up development of the model allows changes in appliances and their usage patterns to be represented, allowing quantification of the impact of changes in technology, for example, the introduction of more efficient technologies, the electrification of heat, and the impact of demand response, in terms of changes in the timing of occupant activities.

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